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Organized Retail Crime (ORC) has surged dramatically in recent years, with the latest National Retail Security Survey of the National Retail Federation data showing a sharp upward trend. From 2022 to 2023, retailers who track ORC incidents reported a staggering 57% increase in these thefts, underscoring the growing sophistication and scale of criminal networks targeting stores.
The problem extends beyond high-value theft; retailers also experienced a 93% rise in average daily shoplifting incidents in 2023 compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, indicating that ORC is increasingly intertwined with broader theft activity. This rise is not only hitting retailers financially but also creating a more dangerous environment for staff and customers. According to the NRF, in 2024 76% of retailers expressed greater concern about ORC in the past year, and 73% observed that offenders are more aggressive or violent.
In announcing the closure of nine stores across New York, Seattle, Portland, San Francisco and Oakland, Target pointed to a pattern of brazen repeat thefts by the same organized crews who would “sweep” stores, grabbing armfuls of high-value items before employees could intervene. One store manager in East Harlem described how groups would enter in coordinated fashion, distract security near the entrance, and head straight for locked cases of beauty products — often prying them open in seconds. Even with added guards, merchandise protection devices and redesigned aisles, the theft continued week after week, forcing the company to conclude it was “no longer safe” for staff or customers to operate there. The decision drew concern from community leaders who feared the loss would hollow out the neighborhood: “When a major retailer like Target leaves,” said one retail consultant, “it’s not just jobs that disappear — customer traffic drops, suppliers pull back and the whole commercial ecosystem weakens.”
Organized Retail Crime (ORC) gangs increasingly rely on coordinated tactics that exploit both physical store vulnerabilities and digital resale opportunities. One common method is the micro-gang blitz, where small coordinated groups overwhelm store staff using distraction and speed. The NRF notes that “groups of three to five individuals entering together to create confusion and block employees” has become a rising trend, allowing thieves to grab high-value items and flee before intervention.
Another growing scheme involves self-checkout manipulation: offenders frequently use what retailers term “scan-avoidance techniques,” including “ticket switching and non-scanning at self-service lanes,” according to the National Retail Security Survey report (2023). These tactics allow offenders to appear as legitimate customers while concealing large-scale theft. Once merchandise is stolen, ORC networks rely on sophisticated online resale channels – or e-fencing – to rapidly move product “through online marketplaces where tracing provenance is difficult,” the NRF states, often blending stolen goods with legitimate inventory to escape detection. These coordinated methods create a highly efficient pipeline that enables repeat thefts, challenges loss-prevention teams, and fuels ORC operations nationwide.
In 2025, organized shoplifting will evolve with increasingly sophisticated and networked methods that make theft faster, smarter, and more scalable. One of the most worrying developments is the use of AI-supported tools to identify high-value, easily saleable items, allowing criminals to quickly scan stock levels, price data, and supply chain feeds to select the most profitable goods to steal.
In addition to smarter targeting, there is also greater mobility, as ORC groups operate in store-hopping gangs, traveling across multiple cities or even states in rental cars or stolen vehicles to rob multiple retail locations in quick succession while staying ahead of local law enforcement. Coordination of these types of thefts is no longer limited to in-person meetings; instead, these groups are increasingly organized through private social media groups and encrypted messaging apps, where plans are shared, roles are assigned, and stolen items are offered for sale within hours of a theft.
These emerging trends paint a picture of ORC networks that operate more like flexible start-ups than traditional shoplifting gangs, with technology playing a major role. The efficiency with which thieves strike should prompt supermarkets to combat theft efficiently and make use of the same developments in AI and technology.
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Whether a retailer is likely to become a prime target for Organized Retail Crime increasingly depends on three interlocking factors: store location, product mix, and overall security measures. According to recent data, 65% of all shoplifting incidents occur in urban-area stores, making them far more heavily targeted than locations in rural settings. Meanwhile, retail theft at suburban shopping malls has climbed by 23% since 2022, underscoring that shrink is rising not only in city centers but also in traditionally lower-risk suburban environments. Next, retailers that stock a product mix rich in high-value, easily concealable goods — such as cosmetics, designer apparel, electronics, liquor, and pharmaceuticals — are at even greater risk, as such items fetch high returns on secondary markets with relatively little effort.
However, location and merchandise alone don’t seal a store’s fate; what often determines whether it becomes a consistent target is where it sits on the security maturity model, ranging from basic “reactive” measures (such as CCTV and uniformed guards) to more advanced, “proactive” measures such as incorporating data analytics, coordinated law-enforcement partnerships, and real-time loss-prevention intelligence. Retailers who remain stuck in the lower segment of this model, apply limited staff training, rely on CCTV and only respond to shoplifting after it has occurred, often face repeated and escalating attacks from the same ORC gangs. Retailers who invest in more advanced security measures can deter, disrupt, and detect criminal activity before it takes hold.
Front-line defenses in retail are increasingly combining physical barriers with intelligent technology to prevent theft:
Effective loss prevention in retail depends not only on technology but also on people and process adjustments that strengthen staff readiness and response. Staff situational awareness training equips employees to recognize suspicious behaviors, understand common ORC tactics, and respond confidently without escalating risk.
In addition, incident response manuals provide clear, step-by-step procedures for dealing with theft, from initial detection to documentation and follow-up, ensuring consistency and reducing errors under pressure. Beyond internal measures, retailers increasingly engage in collaboration with law enforcement and Organized Retail Crime Associations (ORCA) groups, sharing intelligence on repeat offenders, high-risk products, and emerging ORC trends. By combining trained staff, structured processes, and external partnerships, retailers create a proactive environment that can detect, deter, and disrupt theft more effectively than relying on technology alone.
Future-proofing a retail store against theft and ORC requires a structured, step-by-step approach that combines continuous evaluation, intelligence, and strategic investment:
By following these steps, retailers create a proactive framework that not only addresses current threats but also adapts to emerging risks, making the store safer for staff and customers while protecting profitability.
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